Risk-Adjusted Forecast

Program Manager
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Risk-Adjusted Forecast

Integrates the deterministic earned-value estimate at completion with the probabilistic contingency from Monte Carlo simulation of residual risk exposure.

Deterministic EAC

$139.8M

From CPI-based EVM

Contingency (P80)

$5.6M

P50 baseline $3.7M

Risk-Adjusted Budget

$145.4M

EAC + contingency

Reserve Headroom

-$4.5M

Exceeds authorization

Sets the Monte Carlo percentile used to size contingency.

P80
P50 · ExpectedP80 · RecommendedP95 · Conservative

Budget Build-Up

Baseline to risk-adjusted budget

Forecast & Exposure Trend

EAC vs residual exposure vs P80

Recommendation

At a P80 confidence level, the program should hold a risk-adjusted budget of $145,432,136. This comprises a deterministic EAC of $139,809,269 plus $5,622,867 of probabilistic contingency to cover residual risk exposure.

Authorized funding (BAC + management reserve) is $140,900,000, leaving -$4,532,136 of headroom (-3% of authorization). Escalate for additional reserve or scope/schedule recovery.