Monte Carlo Simulation
Quantitative cost & schedule risk analysis across the portfolio
Simulation Inputs
Mean Outcome
$3.8M
Std dev $2.1M
P50 (Median)
$3.7M
50% confidence
P80 Contingency
$5.6M
Recommended reserve
P95 Exposure
$7.6M
Skewness 0.35
Outcome Distribution
Frequency histogram of 10,000 iterations
Cumulative Probability (S-Curve)
Confidence of completing at or below a given value
Confidence Levels
P10
$1.2M
P20
$1.9M
P50
$3.7M
P60
$4.3M
P70
$4.9M
P80
$5.6M
P85
$6.1M
P90
$6.6M
P95
$7.6M
Tornado — Sensitivity Analysis
Risk drivers ranked by mean contribution to total exposure
R-005Steel and copper commodity price escalation
$1.1M24%
R-002Environmental permit contest by stakeholders
$636.9K14%
R-001Long-lead transformer delivery delay
$554.5K12%
R-014Right-of-way easement acquisition delay
$359.9K8%
R-009Reusable automation framework reduces integration effort
-$343.8K8%
R-006Cybersecurity vulnerability in remote access
$336.9K7%
R-008Extended weather delays during foundation work
$326.3K7%
R-010Contractor claim for differing site conditions
$303.6K7%
R-007Specialized commissioning labor shortage
$132.5K3%
R-013Protection relay coordination study rework
$126.7K3%
Threat contribution Opportunity (reduces exposure)Right column: share of total variance