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R-001
Long-lead transformer delivery delay
ActiveSubstation Upgrade·Procurement·Owner: D. Alvarez
Pre-MitigationHigh
$1.6M
Expected monetary value
Score 12.0
65% likely
ResidualModerate
$490K
Expected monetary value
Score 7.5
35% likely
Mitigation Effect
$1.1M
EMV reduction from response plan
Mitigation cost $320K55% effective
Cause (because of)
Global supply constraints on high-voltage transformers
Uncertain Event (there is a risk that)
Primary transformer arrives later than the baseline need date
Consequence (which would lead to)
Substation energization slips, delaying downstream commissioning
Root Cause
Global supply constraints on high-voltage transformers
Trigger / Threshold
Vendor confirmed ship date moves beyond Q3
Early Warning Indicator
Vendor confirmed ship date moves beyond Q3
Assumptions
Baseline assumptions per approved project execution plan.